Can Human Movements Explain Heterogeneous Propagation of Dengue Fever in Cambodia? - Unité de Modélisation Mathématique et Informatique de Systèmes COmplexes
Article Dans Une Revue PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases Année : 2012

Can Human Movements Explain Heterogeneous Propagation of Dengue Fever in Cambodia?

Résumé

Background: Determining the factors underlying the long-range spatial spread of infectious diseases is a key issue regarding their control. Dengue is the most important arboviral disease worldwide and a major public health problem in tropical areas. However the determinants shaping its dynamics at a national scale remain poorly understood. Here we describe the spatial-temporal pattern of propagation of annual epidemics in Cambodia and discuss the role that human movements play in the observed pattern.Methods and Findings: We used wavelet phase analysis to analyse time-series data of 105,598 hospitalized cases reported between 2002 and 2008 in the 135 (/180) most populous districts in Cambodia. We reveal spatial heterogeneity in the propagation of the annual epidemic. Each year, epidemics are highly synchronous over a large geographic area along the busiest national road of the country whereas travelling waves emanate from a few rural areas and move slowly along the Mekong River at a speed of ,11 km per week (95% confidence interval 3–18 km per week) towards the capital, Phnom Penh.Conclusions: We suggest human movements – using roads as a surrogate – play a major role in the spread of dengue fever at a national scale. These findings constitute a new starting point in the understanding of the processes driving dengue spread.
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hal-01495165 , version 1 (08-10-2024)

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Magali Teurlai, Rekol Huy, Bernard Cazelles, Raphaël Duboz, Christophe Baehr, et al.. Can Human Movements Explain Heterogeneous Propagation of Dengue Fever in Cambodia?. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2012, 6 (12), pp.e1957. ⟨10.1371/journal.pntd.0001957⟩. ⟨hal-01495165⟩
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